Tuesday, March 18, 2014

SECOND ANNUAL MEGA MARCH MADNESS PREVIEW

WITHOUT ANY CREATIVE INTRODUCTION, WEIRD CONNECTION TO A POP CULTURE EVENT, RANDOM RAMBLING ABOUT SOMETHING IN MY LIFE, OR BIZARRE TANGENT THAT MAKES YOU QUESTION MY SANITY, I PRESENT THE ATHLETIC ACUMEN'S SECOND ANNUAL MEGA MARCH MADNESS PREVIEW:

1) South Region: Why the Florida Gators Get to the Final Four
Florida will win the South region and basically be untested. Maybe it's because they didn't lose a game in the SEC and haven't lost a game since the year 2013. Maybe it's because I watched Michael Frazier II score 37 points in a dominating performance over my Gamecocks. Maybe it's because I trust very few coaches in the country more than Billy Donovan. Maybe it's because they have a core senior group that isn't seen in college basketball this day and age. Or maybe it's because that since the SEC didn't win the national championship in football, they HAVE to win it in basketball. No matter the reasoning, I see nothing but Florida having a very, off night stopping them from reaching Dallas. In fact, I think the Gators biggest test could come in the Round of 32 against Pittsburgh (should they get past Colorado). The Panthers looked very impressive in the ACC tournament, they can defend Florida's guards, and if Lamar Patterson plays like he's capable of, it could spell trouble for the Gators. Kansas would pose a threat to any other one seed, but without Joel Embiid in the first two rounds, it's no guarantee that the Jayhawks even make it to Memphis. Plus, even if they do get a match-up with the Gators, I'll take Scottie Wilbekin over Nadir Thorpe any day of the week, and I think Florida's stout enough on defense to neutralize Andrew Wiggins just enough. The other teams in the region include Syracuse (A team that can't score and hasn't looked like a three seed since the Super Bowl), UCLA (Who has a coach that NEVER wins in the NCAA tournament), VCU (Who won't catch anybody sleeping with Havoc anymore), and Ohio State (A team who can't score but has proven a double digit nothing doesn't mean they're out of a game). Speaking off the Buckeyes, I like their chances of getting to Memphis. Something tells me Aaron Craft isn't going to let his fumble against Michigan be his last impression on the Buckeye Nation. A win over Syracuse and a chance to get revenge for the 2012 defeat to Kansas would ensure that would not be the case.

2) East Region: Why the Michigan State Spartans get to the Final Four
Let me begin by saying how much I HATE this pick. Every expert, basketball fan, and soccer mom seems to have Michigan State in their Final Four. Yes, the Spartans are finally healthy. Their starting five is arguably the best in basketball, and this past week proved that. When you have the trio of Keith Appling, Gary Harris, and Adreian Payne, it doesn't take a lot to tell your team is going to be good. Yes, the Spartans have Tom Izzo, a coach that makes Final Fours happen no matter the situation in ways that would make Frank Underwood proud. It's been a few years since Izzo has made it, so the basketball gods would say he is due to make his return appearance. Those reasons made me pencil Sparty into a spot in North Texas, but this pick is by far the one I have the least confidence in. Last year, I picked the Spartans to win it all, and they fell flat against Duke in the Sweet Sixteen. A threat of getting Sean Kilpatricked and knocked out by Cincinnati in the Round of 32 is a legitimate possibility with these two physical teams. The same threat exists with Virginia, a team that has played Izzo basketball all season, rather than just one week, and a team that has players like Joe Harris and London Perrantes who want to be noticed on the big stage. Finally, in the bottom half of the bracket is the Iowa State Cyclones. Back in November, this is what I wrote about Iowa State:


The Team Who's Ranked Way Too Low: Iowa State
Last time most people remember seeing the Cyclones, they were one shot away from upsetting Ohio State and advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. Well, Sunday night the Cyclones got their revenge against a Big Ten foe and upset Michigan. Basketball in Ames has undergone a renaissance over the past couple years thanks Frank Hoiberg and look for Iowa State to take the next step this winter. Iowa State may suffer from Texas A&M syndrome and that could be their biggest obstacle in challenging Kansas for the Big XII title (They're going to put up ridiculous offensive numbers game after game. It's just a matter of whether they can hold it together enough on the defensive side). Keep an eye on Melvin Ejim this winter, too. The man is off to a great start after returning from injury, and he could be a household name once March rolls around.

Now, it's March 18th. Iowa State won the Big XII tournament. Melvin Ejim won Big XII player of the year. Iowa State is one of the best offensive teams in the country (You can go back and look in the Athletic Acumen's archives to prove that I'm not lying to my readers in a desperate attempt to prove my credibility. I'd like to think I actually have a clue or two of what I'm talking about). Picking against the Cyclones just seems downright criminal, especially when you predict their good fortunes month in advance. Going against the Hilton Magic and Fred Hoiberg was tough, but ultimately Iowa State doesn't seem to have the defense to win four games and make it to the Final Four (If they do, though, I'm taking credit for being one of the first on the Cyclones' bandwagon). That's why I'm going with ol' reliable, the Michigan State Spartans, to represent the B1G in Dallas. 

3) West Region: Why Creighton gets to the Final Four
DOUG MCDERMOTT... That's really all I would have to say to justify this pick that's based purely out of my rooting interest in what happens over the next couple of weeks. However, I'll go into some more detail about why I think this can actually happen. First off, the West is by far the weakest region out there and plagued by teams that don't have success in the tournament normally (Wisconsin, San Diego State, Oklahoma). I must admit this is a different kind of Wisconsin, and they have had their own type of Matthew McConaughey renaissance over this season. What do I mean by that? Well, both the Badgers and McConaughey have long suffered from certain reputations. The Badgers play slow basketball, play a lot of white guys with buzz cuts, and don't win in the tournament. McConaughey used to be a sleazy actor in horrible films and most famous for his opening moniker "all right, all right, all right." Now, McConaughey is proving himself to be a world class actor, he has an Oscar, and I take him seriously. Wisconsin basketball is trying to do the same. The Badgers have had a tremendous season, and Bo Ryan could get his team back to the Final Four. Sam Dekker, Ben Brust, Frank Kaminsky, and Traevon Jackson had a great season, but unfortunately, they won't get any farther than the Sweet Sixteen because of Mr. Douglas Richard McDermott. After dispatching of UL-Lafayette, the Cornhuskers in the Nebraskan Civil War, and the Badgers, the Blue Jays will defeat Arizona to reach the Final Four. If that logic isn't enough, let's look at wacky intangibles for why Creighton making the Final Four would be one of the most American stories of all time:

-As much as defense wins championships, nothing makes Americans feel better than watching some explosive offensive fireworks, or just explosions and fireworks!
-While many father/son duos are seen in high school, McDermott gets to play for his father in COLLEGE. People, we are a few song and dance numbers, a girlfriend who competes in academic competitions, and McDermott being discovered singing beautifully in the shower from watching Creighton University Musical!
-Creighton is still an underdog, and what's more American than rooting for the underdog from middle America!

Finally, Warren Buffett, the man who has made every American interested in March Madness with his promise to give a billion dollars out to an individual if he/she fills out a perfect bracket backs Creighton. Look at this beautiful picture!

Look at that picture. Take it all in. Then, go get your eraser because you have seen the light and realized that Arizona, Wisconsin, or San Diego State not only won't make the Final Four, they don't belong in the Final Four. You love Creighton. You love Dougie McBuckets. And if that's not true, you most certainly love money! Let's go Blue Jays!!!

4) Midwest Region: Why the Louisville Cardinals get to the Final Four
Last week, Louisville won a game by 61 points. SIXTY ONE POINTS. First off, I don't care who you're playing that says a lot about how well you're playing right now. Secondly, that was against Rutgers. Now Jim Delany, I now you are all about the money, but for the love of God, please don't let the Scarlet Knights into your conference next year. They are atrocious at every sport, and the Scarlet Knight is just a horrible nickname. This team will bring absolutely nothing but a few more dollars. Poach Kentucky, or Cincinnati, or UConn, or West Indiana Tech. Anybody but Rutgers. Please. Please... Anyways, the Midwest region will undoubtedly provided the best basketball. Wichita State vs. Kentucky, Duke vs. Michigan, Kentucky vs. Louisville, Wichita State vs. Louisville, Wichita State vs. Duke, and Kentucky vs. Duke could all be potential match-ups. Once again, I have some regrets about picking Louisville because of the sheer number of people making this trendy selection, but the Cards are for real. Last year, I criticized the play of Russ Smith. Won't see that happening this year. Not only can he still score like few other players in the country, he has now developed into a leader to fill Peyton Siva's shoes. Montrezl Harrell is going to be the key for Louisville to make a return trip to the Final Four. The man has had one of the most impressive season of anyone not named McDermott, and he's going to have to play well for the Cards to survive and advance in the region of death. As much as I'd love to see a Wichita State vs. Creighton Final Four match-up, I couldn't bring myself to pick the Shockers. I love Fred Van Vleet. Gregg Marshall is a superb coach. I hope Ron Baker (the Troy Bolton look alike) and Doug McDermott (the hopefully future Troy Bolton) go head to head in Dallas. Ultimately, the Shockers will not do as well in the position of the hunted. Look for Duke to make the Elite Eight behind Jabari "First Overall Pick" Parker and Marshall "I Don't Have Nearly As Much Talent As My Brothers" Plumlee, which will set up a game of the ages between the Cardinals and the Blue Devils. At the end of the day, Louisville's RUSSdiculous press will let them cut down the nets in Indianapolis, and Duke will be wishing they had a legitimate frontcourt presence.

Last night, I had a dream that Louisville lost to Manhattan 74-72 in the Round of 64 on a shot from around the free throw line with about four seconds left. Yes, I'm so pathetically consumed by this basketball tournament I dream about it, and yes, I'm fairly confident this won't happen, but I'm including this just on the off chance it happens, so I can get That's So Jacob or a spinoff to Psych in the works ASAP...

Who Wins it All? My full bracket is pictured below... If you don't like pictures **SPOILER ALERT** I take the Gators over the Cardinals. And yes, Michigan is scUM... Happy Basketball, and may the 9.2 quintillion odds be forever in you favor!

J. Nave 






Saturday, March 1, 2014

Sixteen Teams Who Could Win the National Championship (Part 1)

After one of the most brutal winters in recent memory, spring is finally showing signs of life and peaking it's head around the corner. While your English professor might tell you spring is the time of rebirth and new life, I'm here to tell you that spring brings much better things than some Shakespearean metaphor. Spring means baseball. Spring means warmer weather. Spring means #SpringBreak2K14, or the Spring Break where every 18-22 year old on the planet tries to make one week of their life put The Wolf of Wall Street's plot to shame only to realize that it is an impossible task. Spring means school is almost out. Spring means a new season of Game of Thrones (36 days! Not like I'm counting down or anything). Most importantly, spring means March Madness. Nothing, I repeat nothing, is better than sitting on your couch watching basketball from noon to after midnight AND it being 100% socially acceptable. In order to give the loyal readers of the Athletic Acumen some help in filling out their brackets, I'm going to break down every team I think has a legitimate chance of cutting down the nets in Jerry World come early April. One, it will provide some thorough analysis on about the legitimate contenders come March Madness. Some teams may seem like long shots. Some teams may have more glaring weaknesses than others. But if this year has taught us anything in college sports, it's expect the unexpected. Secondly, this will give me sixteen chances to peg a National Champion. Some of you might call that a cop out, but I'd like to look at it as a safe investment. And if none of these 16 teams win the National Championship? Well then that's just embarrassing and equally as bad as my bowl game picks... Without further ado, let's look at the first five teams who could be crowned the new national champions on April 7th:

1) Florida- The Current Number One
Why the Gators Will Win it All: Florida has made it through SEC play unscathed all year. While the SEC might be as good at basketball as the Sun Belt is at football, it's still an accomplishment to go through a major conference undefeated heading into March. Florida's biggest asset is their experience. Seniors dominate their starting lineup, and in the one and done phase of college basketball, this is a huge advantage. Look no further than their win at Kentucky two weeks ago. When the game was on the line, Florida stayed as cool as the other side of the pillow. It starts with guard Scottie Wilbekin, (who has had a bit of a tumultuous career during his time with the Gators), but who has fully blossomed into a leader that can take over games when they're on the line. With leading scorer Casey Prather and dominant forward Patric Young on the inside, the Gators are establishing themselves as front runners entering the tournament.

Why the Gators Won't Win it All: Let's be honest: The SEC is deplorable at basketball. This is a conference with GEORGIA in third place. Georgia went 6-6 in nonconference play. They're 10-5 in the SEC. South Carolina lost to a branch campus in nonconference play. Ole Miss hasn't been nearly as good and Marshall Henderson hasn't been nearly as entertaining. Teams like LSU and Arkansas have talent, but they can't string two quality games together. Plus, the Florida narrative has held true for the past few tournaments: The Gators always have a solid team, but they always lose in the Elite Eight. Thanks to GEICO, you're now more than familiar with the concept Hump Day, but I would like to start referring to the Elite Eight as Hump Round for the Florida basketball team. The Gators have all the makings of a national championship winning team, it's just a matter of whether they can get past Hump Round and avoid beating themselves.

2) Kentucky- The Unpredictable (and Probably Lawbreaking) Wildcard
Why the Wildcats Will Win it All: This section is going to be brief, especially after Kentucky's lackluster performances the past two games against LSU and Arkansas. They do have the nation's number one recruiting class, a couple future lottery picks, and a coach who wouldn't hesitate in committing felonies to get his team a key win, though, so the Wildcats can never be counted out (Speaking of felonies, a porn star offered to have sex with every player of the Cleveland Cavaliers if they make the playoffs this season. If there's a program and coach to have this offer in place at the collegiate level, it is undoubtedly the Kentucky Wildcats. I'm sure this will be discovered during an investigation in the next few years- or sooner if Calipari flees to the New York Knicks or NBA this summer).

Why the Wildcats Won't Win it All: When Kentucky played Florida, they looked like a bunch of panicked freshman walking into high school on the first day. Julius Randle may have peed his pants in the final minutes of that game. Nobody could make a shot. Coach Calipari couldn't get an Escalade into Rupp Arena to bribe a player to step his game up. Not good signs for a team this late in the season. Plus, this is the same program that lost to Robert Morris in the NIT last year. Don't be surprised if the Cats are one of the five seeds to a lose to a twelve seed in this tournament (Ohio State appears to be a lock for this designation as well, if they're able to even get up to the five line).

3) Arizona- The West Coast's Best Hope
Why the Wildcats Will Win it All: A few months ago, Arizona was one of the undisputed best teams in the country. Players each had established roles. They went on the road and beat quality opponents. The Wildcats seemed to have it all figured it out.

Why the Wildcats Won't Win it All: However, ever since the loss of Brandon Ashley, the Wildcats have struggled to figure things out (In every single article written about Arizona of late, the loss of Ashley has been mentioned. I kid you not. Find one that doesn't have his name included. You would think Ashley was the LeBron James of the Wildcats). They've struggled against decent or mediocre teams and needed overtime to win some of their last several games.

Why the Wildcats Will Win it All: However, the last couple games, this looks like a new and improved Arizona team. Possibly even better than the one from early on in the season. First, they went on the road and embarrassed Colorado and scored 87 points. Then, they played Cal, a team that had beaten them, and scored 86 points against them. The Arizona offense is firing on all cylinders right now. TJ McConnell is becoming one of the most underrated point guards in the country, Nick Johnson is looking like a bonafide scorer, and Aaron Gordon is even playing like a legitimate member of the most talented recruiting class of all time (As am I! Dropped 24 in an intramural basketball game the other night. Why Frank Martin hasn't offered me a scholarship to help turn the Gamecock program around? I'm not sure. But a few more performances like that, and I think I can at least earn preferred walk on status)!

Why the Wildcats Won't Win it All: They don't have Ashley. And that's like having a Nicholas Cage movie without insanity and yelling, according to every basketball expert. If this is actually true, they don't stand a chance. If Ashley is unimportant, though, there may be a chance for the Wildcats to find the invisible map on the back of the Declaration of Independence and win it all.

4) Virginia- The Dark Horse
Why the Cavaliers Will Win it All: Quick quiz! Who's in first place in the ACC? No, it's not Duke. No, it's not Syracuse. No, it's not North Carolina. It's Virginia (as anybody with a brain should have figured out by the heading of this section)! The Cavaliers have quietly won 12 straight games, and they play better defense than almost any team in the country. Actually, they allow the fewest points of any team in the country. Watching a Virginia game might be as exciting as watching pickup basketball at a retirement home, but the Cavaliers are the masters of their brand of basketball. Their offense used to only run around guard Joe Harris, but now they are developing additional weapons to make their offense more potent. Plus, the thing that makes Virginia most dangerous is nobody is giving them much credit. And as Katy Perry and Juicy J have proven the past few months, the Dark Horse can be deceptively catchy.

Why the Cavaliers Won't Win it All: The last time Virginia was known for their basketball team was 1981 when they had a player by the name of Ralph Sampson lead them to the Final Four. Since then, all the school has been known for is its preppy reputation (so many bow ties), ridiculous out of state tuition (Maybe I had interest in looking into UVA before I saw the price tag?), and Jeffersonian architecture. Not sure how much I trust a school like that to win six straight basketball games. Plus, if they run into a team like Wisconsin when they're draining threes, I'm not sure if the Cavs will be able to score enough.

5) Wichita State- The Most Overrated and Most Underrated
Why the Shockers Will Win it All: No team has had to endure more scrutiny and analysis than Wichita State the last few months. First off, let me say this. If you win 31 straight games (I'm assuming they will hold on to beat Missouri State), that is an impressive feat. That means you don't slip up against a team like Boston College (looking at you Syracuse). That means you rise to the occasion to beat more difficult opponents like Saint Louis (Even though the Billikens play is falling off a cliff of late). That means you find a way to win even when you're not playing your best basketball. For four months now, the Shockers have done that. No other team in the country can make that claim. Last year, Wichita State was 10 minutes from playing for the national championship. This team is probably even better than that one. Nobody seems to be giving them much of a chance, and that is absolutely absurd in my opinion Fred Van Vleet, Ron Baker, and Cleanthony Early and the Shockers are going to be a number one seed. And that is deserved.

Why the Shockers Won't Win it All: Fred Van Vleet, Ron Baker, and Cleanthony Early and the Shockers are going to be a number one seed. However, just because they went undefeated doesn't mean they're one of the best four teams in the country. As bad as the SEC is, the Missouri Valley is a first grade church league comparison. Indiana State? They haven't been relevant since Larry Bird went to school their last millennium. Bradley? That's a name, not a university. Drake? It might be fun to play Drake and the OVO clique in basketball, but they're not worthy of being a D1 program. The biggest disadvantage to the Shockers, though, will be the fact that they will be the hunted rather than the hunter this time around. Having that bullseye on their back is going to prevent Wichita State from flying under the radar, like they did last time around. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Shockers make an exit in the first weekend courtesy of an 8 or 9 seed. Most terrifying thing to me about the Shockers? Wichita State coach, Gregg Marshall, looks frighteningly identical to Indiana coach, Tom Crean. And Tom Crean's decision making is close games is puzzling to say the least. Not sure if I can trust a Crean Clone in a single elimination basketball tournament.



J. Nave