1) Florida- The Current Number One
Why the Gators Will Win it All: Florida has made it through SEC play unscathed all year. While the SEC might be as good at basketball as the Sun Belt is at football, it's still an accomplishment to go through a major conference undefeated heading into March. Florida's biggest asset is their experience. Seniors dominate their starting lineup, and in the one and done phase of college basketball, this is a huge advantage. Look no further than their win at Kentucky two weeks ago. When the game was on the line, Florida stayed as cool as the other side of the pillow. It starts with guard Scottie Wilbekin, (who has had a bit of a tumultuous career during his time with the Gators), but who has fully blossomed into a leader that can take over games when they're on the line. With leading scorer Casey Prather and dominant forward Patric Young on the inside, the Gators are establishing themselves as front runners entering the tournament.
Why the Gators Won't Win it All: Let's be honest: The SEC is deplorable at basketball. This is a conference with GEORGIA in third place. Georgia went 6-6 in nonconference play. They're 10-5 in the SEC. South Carolina lost to a branch campus in nonconference play. Ole Miss hasn't been nearly as good and Marshall Henderson hasn't been nearly as entertaining. Teams like LSU and Arkansas have talent, but they can't string two quality games together. Plus, the Florida narrative has held true for the past few tournaments: The Gators always have a solid team, but they always lose in the Elite Eight. Thanks to GEICO, you're now more than familiar with the concept Hump Day, but I would like to start referring to the Elite Eight as Hump Round for the Florida basketball team. The Gators have all the makings of a national championship winning team, it's just a matter of whether they can get past Hump Round and avoid beating themselves.
2) Kentucky- The Unpredictable (and Probably Lawbreaking) Wildcard
Why the Wildcats Will Win it All: This section is going to be brief, especially after Kentucky's lackluster performances the past two games against LSU and Arkansas. They do have the nation's number one recruiting class, a couple future lottery picks, and a coach who wouldn't hesitate in committing felonies to get his team a key win, though, so the Wildcats can never be counted out (Speaking of felonies, a porn star offered to have sex with every player of the Cleveland Cavaliers if they make the playoffs this season. If there's a program and coach to have this offer in place at the collegiate level, it is undoubtedly the Kentucky Wildcats. I'm sure this will be discovered during an investigation in the next few years- or sooner if Calipari flees to the New York Knicks or NBA this summer).
Why the Wildcats Won't Win it All: When Kentucky played Florida, they looked like a bunch of panicked freshman walking into high school on the first day. Julius Randle may have peed his pants in the final minutes of that game. Nobody could make a shot. Coach Calipari couldn't get an Escalade into Rupp Arena to bribe a player to step his game up. Not good signs for a team this late in the season. Plus, this is the same program that lost to Robert Morris in the NIT last year. Don't be surprised if the Cats are one of the five seeds to a lose to a twelve seed in this tournament (Ohio State appears to be a lock for this designation as well, if they're able to even get up to the five line).
3) Arizona- The West Coast's Best Hope
Why the Wildcats Will Win it All: A few months ago, Arizona was one of the undisputed best teams in the country. Players each had established roles. They went on the road and beat quality opponents. The Wildcats seemed to have it all figured it out.
Why the Wildcats Won't Win it All: However, ever since the loss of Brandon Ashley, the Wildcats have struggled to figure things out (In every single article written about Arizona of late, the loss of Ashley has been mentioned. I kid you not. Find one that doesn't have his name included. You would think Ashley was the LeBron James of the Wildcats). They've struggled against decent or mediocre teams and needed overtime to win some of their last several games.
Why the Wildcats Will Win it All: However, the last couple games, this looks like a new and improved Arizona team. Possibly even better than the one from early on in the season. First, they went on the road and embarrassed Colorado and scored 87 points. Then, they played Cal, a team that had beaten them, and scored 86 points against them. The Arizona offense is firing on all cylinders right now. TJ McConnell is becoming one of the most underrated point guards in the country, Nick Johnson is looking like a bonafide scorer, and Aaron Gordon is even playing like a legitimate member of the most talented recruiting class of all time (As am I! Dropped 24 in an intramural basketball game the other night. Why Frank Martin hasn't offered me a scholarship to help turn the Gamecock program around? I'm not sure. But a few more performances like that, and I think I can at least earn preferred walk on status)!
Why the Wildcats Won't Win it All: They don't have Ashley. And that's like having a Nicholas Cage movie without insanity and yelling, according to every basketball expert. If this is actually true, they don't stand a chance. If Ashley is unimportant, though, there may be a chance for the Wildcats to find the invisible map on the back of the Declaration of Independence and win it all.
4) Virginia- The Dark Horse
Why the Cavaliers Will Win it All: Quick quiz! Who's in first place in the ACC? No, it's not Duke. No, it's not Syracuse. No, it's not North Carolina. It's Virginia (as anybody with a brain should have figured out by the heading of this section)! The Cavaliers have quietly won 12 straight games, and they play better defense than almost any team in the country. Actually, they allow the fewest points of any team in the country. Watching a Virginia game might be as exciting as watching pickup basketball at a retirement home, but the Cavaliers are the masters of their brand of basketball. Their offense used to only run around guard Joe Harris, but now they are developing additional weapons to make their offense more potent. Plus, the thing that makes Virginia most dangerous is nobody is giving them much credit. And as Katy Perry and Juicy J have proven the past few months, the Dark Horse can be deceptively catchy.
Why the Cavaliers Won't Win it All: The last time Virginia was known for their basketball team was 1981 when they had a player by the name of Ralph Sampson lead them to the Final Four. Since then, all the school has been known for is its preppy reputation (so many bow ties), ridiculous out of state tuition (Maybe I had interest in looking into UVA before I saw the price tag?), and Jeffersonian architecture. Not sure how much I trust a school like that to win six straight basketball games. Plus, if they run into a team like Wisconsin when they're draining threes, I'm not sure if the Cavs will be able to score enough.
5) Wichita State- The Most Overrated and Most Underrated
Why the Shockers Will Win it All: No team has had to endure more scrutiny and analysis than Wichita State the last few months. First off, let me say this. If you win 31 straight games (I'm assuming they will hold on to beat Missouri State), that is an impressive feat. That means you don't slip up against a team like Boston College (looking at you Syracuse). That means you rise to the occasion to beat more difficult opponents like Saint Louis (Even though the Billikens play is falling off a cliff of late). That means you find a way to win even when you're not playing your best basketball. For four months now, the Shockers have done that. No other team in the country can make that claim. Last year, Wichita State was 10 minutes from playing for the national championship. This team is probably even better than that one. Nobody seems to be giving them much of a chance, and that is absolutely absurd in my opinion Fred Van Vleet, Ron Baker, and Cleanthony Early and the Shockers are going to be a number one seed. And that is deserved.
Why the Shockers Won't Win it All: Fred Van Vleet, Ron Baker, and Cleanthony Early and the Shockers are going to be a number one seed. However, just because they went undefeated doesn't mean they're one of the best four teams in the country. As bad as the SEC is, the Missouri Valley is a first grade church league comparison. Indiana State? They haven't been relevant since Larry Bird went to school their last millennium. Bradley? That's a name, not a university. Drake? It might be fun to play Drake and the OVO clique in basketball, but they're not worthy of being a D1 program. The biggest disadvantage to the Shockers, though, will be the fact that they will be the hunted rather than the hunter this time around. Having that bullseye on their back is going to prevent Wichita State from flying under the radar, like they did last time around. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Shockers make an exit in the first weekend courtesy of an 8 or 9 seed. Most terrifying thing to me about the Shockers? Wichita State coach, Gregg Marshall, looks frighteningly identical to Indiana coach, Tom Crean. And Tom Crean's decision making is close games is puzzling to say the least. Not sure if I can trust a Crean Clone in a single elimination basketball tournament.
J. Nave
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