MIDWEST REGION-Will Anybody Stop Kentucky? No.
It's no secret I despise the Kentucky Wildcats. Just take a look at the blog archives for a post I wrote the day before Kentucky played in the National Championship game last year. As I've tried to understand the core nature of my hatred it hit me- John Calipari is the Tywin Lannister of college basketball. Fans of Game of Thrones will come to see this is a brilliant metaphor. People who don't watch the show should stop reading this and go immediately start watching Game of Thrones, as you have 26 days to watch 40 episodes in preparation for Season Five. At his previous two stops, illicit activities took place vacating both Massachusetts and Memphis of Final Four appearances. Calipari was never personally indicted, though. You know who that sounds like? Tywin Lannister. The patriarch of House Lannister never gets his hands dirty, but only the naivest of the naive would argue Tywin is a saint. Both men come off as smug and arrogant whenever they are on screen. Tywin's relatives have long practiced inbreeding. I'm sure some people would argue the same could be said about a population of Kentucky fans. Both men are creepily obsessed with their legacy- Tywin, with his family and maintaining rule of Westeros; Calipari, with his players becoming high NBA draft picks. Both men have a lot of power, but little control of their situation- Tywin must trust Joffrey and his kids; Calipari must trust his players. In Season 4 of Game of Thrones, the Lannisters mighty rule slowly and surely tumbled into absolute chaos after a steady three season rise to the top. The Lannisters ultimately did themselves in. Will Kentucky crumble under the pressure of a 40-0 season? Will Devin Booker, AKA the grown up, boy scout from Up, stop scoring? Will the Harrison twins shoot Calipari with a crossbow in the team hotel? Any of these could happen, and for the sake of completing this analogy, I hope they do. But I don't see that happening. Talent, height, length, depth, great defense, a vastly improved offense, NCAA tournament experience. The list of reasons goes on and on for why Big Blue Nation cuts down the nets. Watching Calipari go 40-0 would suck until the season gets vacated seven years from now. Having a team beat Kentucky would take a Herculean effort likely resulting in one of the greatest college basketball games of all time. Either way, it's a win/win.
WEST REGION- Arizona Gets Revenge On Wisconsin
Last year, Wisconsin beat Arizona in the Elite Eight in one of the most entertaining games of the NCAA tournament. This year, Arizona will beat Wisconsin in the Elite Eight in one of the most entertaining games of the tournament. This region was by far the easiest for me to fill out. In my opinion, these two teams are playing better than anyone not named Kentucky. These are also the two teams I think have the best shot at beating Kentucky. It's a shame only one will get the chance. Arizona, under Sean Miller, has become a perennial power in the desolate wasteland that is college basketball out west. Stanley Johnson might sound like one of the plainest names of all time, but his game is far from plain. Watching TJ McConnell play is like watching a more offensively potent Aaron Craft come to life. Arizona has size that will suffocate Wisconsin's Player of the Year candidate, Frank Kaminsky. The Wildcats reward will be to play the Wildcats for a shot at the National Championship.
EAST REGION- Michigan State Is My Cinderella Final Four Pick
Villanova might be one of the most underrated one seeds of all times. Virginia basketball is the Michelangelo-esque masterpiece of what college basketball should look like. It pains me to not pick either team to have a crack at the National Championship. But there's something about this Michigan State team. The Spartans have been a virtual non-factor all season, but after taking Wisconsin to the brink in the Big Ten tournament, they appeared back in the national discussion. The Spartans are never a team you want to face in March, and this team seems to be no exception to this classic rule. Tom Izzo is personally my favorite coach in college basketball. His grimaces on camera are hilarious. His ability to continually get more out of his teams than he should is downright miraculous. He could lead the Michigan State managers to the second weekend of the tournament. This in many ways reminds me of Michigan State Final Four teams in years past. Travis Trice has morphed into a type of guard like Keith Appling or Drew Neitzel that pulled off a deep run for the Spartans before. Brendan Dawson has become an enigmatic mismatch. Denzel Valentine plays with incredible confidence. Matt Costello is better than you think he is. I picked the Spartans to make the Final Four last year, and they made the Elite Eight after beating the #1 seed in the region, Virginia. Another upset over the Cavaliers starts the run for the Spartans back to the Final Four, where Tom Izzo hasn't been since 2010. That's a long time in Izzo years. The Final Four's prodigal son comes home in Indianapolis.
SOUTH REGION- The Mayor Brings Hilton Magic to the Final Four
Every basketball analyst in the country has been drooling over the inevitable title game between Kentucky and Duke since November. I've got news for you. That game isn't going to happen. The selection committee obviously wanted it to happen based on the draw the Blue Devils were given. In all likelihood, Duke won't break a sweat until at least the Elite Eight. Typing that sentence is exactly why I can't pick Duke to make it to the Final Four, however. When a sixteen seed finally beats a one seed, it will be Duke to lose. Mercer? Lehigh? VCU before they were a national brand? North Florida plays in the same state as Florida Gulf Coast. Robert Morris beat Kentucky in the NIT a few years ago. The winner awaits Duke. Is this going to finally be the year? Duke's rotation depends on Grayson Allen, who looks suspiciously like Freddie from iCarly, and Marshall Plumlee, who is the ugly stepsister of the Plumlee family in terms of basketball ability. The lack of depth is frightening should Duke find themselves in a physical game against San Diego State in the third round. Factor in the allergy to playing defense and some of the losses Duke has had this year, and I can't bring myself to pick Coach K to advance this team too deep.
That brought me to the issue of who to pick to replace them in the Final Four. Gonzaga is talented, but they're Gonzaga. They don't have a good track record for lengthy tournament runs. Georgetown should be about a #6 or #7 seed, and they have a reputation for upsets in the tournament as well. Eastern Washington will score a ton of points and might upset the Hoyas. Utah might get beat by Stephen F. Austin. I contemplated picking Davidson or Iowa to make the Final Four. Ultimately, I decided this has got to be Iowa State's year. Fred Hoiberg has turned Ames, Iowa into one of college basketball's most passionate hotbeds. The Cyclones are firing on all cylinders with their offense like always, and they have a much needed interior presence that has been lacking in years past. Also, there's the fact Iowa State won the Big 12 tournament WITHOUT EVEN TRYING IN THE FIRST HALF. Hoiberg's starters acted like they wanted to go eat Kansas City barbecue, listen to TLC, and/or watch Netflix for the first half of every game, and they still won their second consecutive conference championship. The Mayor is a good enough coach to fix this intensity and effort issue if it still needs addressed. Iowa State has their own serious concerns, none bigger than the fact they lost to my South Carolina Gamecocks. The South Region is a total toss up, but I'm going with the team that has made me believe Iowa State's famed Hilton Magic has spread out of Ames. The Cyclones then would get the Spartans in a classic clash of styles and pit a veteran coaching icon against a likely future one.
Other Tournament Tidbits
-A long standing joke about the Mormon faith is the practice of polygamy. Brigham Young University, a predominantly Mormon institution, has a player in Kyle Collinsworth that practices polygamy- on the stat sheet. The guy has six triple doubles THIS SEASON. In addition, the Cougars have Tyler Haws, who can channel his inner Jimmer Fredette on any given night. BYU will have to to win three games to get there, but they could be a double digit team still playing during the second weekend.
-The 5/12 upset has by far become the most commonly picked tradition in the NCAA Tournament. However, this year, I don't see a single 12 seed getting the job done. This basically is picking an upset! Don't get me wrong, the twelve seeds all pose interesting threats. The five seeds all have a player, though, that can take over any game, which is not always the case, especially when you observe the field from last year where every five seed played a dogfight. For West Virginia, Juwan Staten's skill set combined with the Mountaineers' pressing defense will be tough to overcome. Arkansas has the SEC Player of the Year in Bobby Portis, and Wofford doesn't have the size to contain him. Northern Iowa has Seth Tuttle, one of the most underrated forwards in the entire country. Lastly, Utah has Delon Wright. If you decide to pick an upset, I'd choose Buffalo over West Virginia or Stephen F. Austin over Utah. Staten has been hobbled from injuries in recent weeks, while Utah as a team has struggled recently.
-If you like bold upset predictions, I'd like to introduce you to two intriguing options. Belmont over Virginia and Georgia State over Baylor. Belmont shoots A LOT of threes. They have a tendency to make A LOT of threes. Virginia's pack line defense is built around allowing teams to take perimeter shots. This allowed Duke to beat them after being outplayed for 38 minutes. Combine this with Justin Anderson's seemingly inability to play at 100% from injury, and the Cavaliers might be ripe for an upset. Virginia has only lost three games on the season, and like I said before, I believe at full strength they are the epitome of college basketball excellence. If Belmont isn't making their shots, they might not score more than 45 points. I advanced UVA, but I thought about pulling the trigger. Meanwhile, Georgia State has one huge intangible advantage over Baylor. A mention in a Drake song. Ohio State is mentioned in a Drake song, and they won it all in football this year. Georgia State also has former Louisville player, Kevin Ware (Leg injury picture not included because NSFW), and former Kentucky player, Ryan Harrow on the roster. NEWS FLASH: Those programs are good at basketball. The advanced stats say Georgia State has the potential to pull off the stunner as well, if you are a math guy or gal. Plus, I hate Baylor after ending the career of Doug McDermott last spring. Yet again, couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger.
-Wichita State should not be discounted as another seven seed that can make a run. A match-up with Kansas is what Shocker fans have been pleading for ever since Gregg Marshall took the program to new heights a couple years back. Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker have a lot of tournament experience, and backcourt play is normally crucial in terms of a team advancing in March.
-Ohio State will go only as far as D'Angelo Russell can carry them. Beating VCU is one thing, but beating Arizona will literally, and figuratively, be a tall task for the undersized Buckeyes. If there's any consolation for hope, UConn, behind the play of one really good guard last year, made a fairly deep tournament run from a very similar spot on the bracket last year.
-I have a personal history with one player in the field this year. I attempted to get into a fight with Davidson guard Jack Gibbs after a high school basketball game between his school and mine. I was not on the team, and I'm not sure why I thought I could take him. However, in the moment, I was ready to move past verbal heckling for the only time in my student section career. It would have probably ended very poorly for me. Anyways, the guy plays with grit toughness and when you combine him and A-10 Player of the Year Tyler Kalinoski in the same backcourt, the Wildcats could easily become a tough out. They lack strong frontcourt play, which is going to be problematic, but Davidson as a 10 seed with competent guard play has led to something special before in the tournament. Isn't that right, Steph Curry?
-I'm picking Kentucky to win it all solely hoping that doing so will result in them not getting the job done.
-I picked against Ohio State hoping that will allow them to win at least one game.
-The one prediction I can guarantee? March Madness will once again live up to its name.
-When Iowa State gets beaten by UAB, and Virginia enacts revenge on Michigan State by beating them by 20 points, don't tweet hateful things at me.
THE BRACKET
J. Nave
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