A Sweet First Weekend and a Look Ahead at the Sweet Sixteen

Last week at this time, millions of people studied a simple sheet of paper in a maddening fashion. They developed acronyms for teams they've never heard of. They pegged upsets and Cinderella stories  They figured out the perfect Final Four. They made bets on their perfect piece of paper and believed that this is finally their year. Then something funny happened. A Friday night rolls around and a fifteen seed from Fort Myers, Florida is beating a perennial Big East power. Granted this team has struggled in the tournament (now having lost to double digit seeds in the last four tournaments), but a university that is only 21 years old should not be in this position. Suddenly, the notion of maintaining a perfect bracket goes out the window. We root for this underdog. We marvel at their "We've got nothing to lose attitude", and jump on the bandwagon in seconds. This team makes incredible plays (FGCU Alley Oop) and shocks the world by pulling off an incredible upset. While we celebrate this team in a moment of jubilee, we realize the Cinderella story will unfortunately end next round and reality hits us hard. However, the Eagles weren't going to let history write their script. They show up two nights later against the San Diego State and reclaim their intensity from the onset. Now, for the first time in NCAA tournament history, a fifteen seed, the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, is going to the Sweet 16. What makes this miraculous story sweeter? How about a match-up with the Florida Gators. If you're looking for one of the best David vs. Goliath games of 2013, I would tune into this game. Will America's newest darlings be able to beat one of the most successful basketball programs of the last decade or will Florida's little underdogs be able to defeat the state's mighty Gators? I can't wait to find out. The winner of this game will face either Kansas or Michigan in the South region's final, two teams who have been very impressive thus far. Michigan made VCU's "Havoc" look more like "Peace be with you" and steamrolled the Rams behind a stellar performance from Mitch McGary. They're going to need the frontcourt play to continue against Kansas. The Jayhawks shook off a terrible first half to advance to the Sweet 16. Travis Releford and Jeff Withey have replaced the scoring for a struggling Ben McLemore, but Rock Chalk Nation is going to need every member of the team playing well if they want to beat Michigan.   

The Florida Gulf Coast story line would have been enough excitement to suffice for one NCAA tournament, but come on. In the most exciting NCAA basketball season of my lifetime, that little amount of chaos isn't nearly enough. In the West region, the one, three, four, and five seeds will not be advancing to Los Angeles to play in the Sweet 16. The number two seed, the Ohio State Buckeyes, tried to continue the trend, but luckily Aaron Craft stepped up to make his first three pointer since the sixth grade. They'll move on to face a very underrated team in Arizona. What makes this match-up even more interesting is the battle between Thad Matta and Sean Miller, two coaches linked with the Xavier basketball program. Arizona was a top ten team at one point during the season. They derailed in the latter parts of the season, but right now they're playing their best basketball of the season. Ohio State's going to have to shake off a shaky performance if they want to advance to the Elite 8. On the other side of the west region, La Salle will face Wichita State. If you had this picked correctly, raise your hand. No put it down because you are a dirty liar. Unless you are an Explorer and your spouse is a Shocker, nobody could have seen this match-up coming. Neither of these teams are even their conference's best program. Ron Baker stepped up for the Shockers against Gonzaga, while La Salle was able to advance past Marshall Henderson and Ole Miss in the final seconds. Ohio State still appears to be the favorite to win this region, but with what has conspired so far, who really knows what to expect as wildest region in the tournament travels to one of the wildest cities in the country.

With all of the chaos, the East region has served as a perfect antithesis and consists of all chalk in the Sweet 16. Top seeded Indiana will face fourth seeded Syracuse, while second seeded Miami (FL) will face third seeded Marquette. Indiana barely beat Khalif Wyatt University (Sorry, it was actually Temple University), but more importantly won a low scoring defensive battle. The Hoosiers had not been successful in defensive battles prior to this, but a clutch three from Victor Oladipo and limiting Wyatt's offensive abilities in the final few minutes allowed Indiana to hold on. Syracuse embarrassed Montana in their first game, before soundly beating California in their second, and they will roll into Washington D.C. with a lot of momentum. This game will feature a phenomenal coaching battle between Tom Crean and Jim Boeheim, and the Indiana high octane offense vs the famous Syracuse 2-3 Zone. Another great basketball game seems guaranteed. In the other game, Marquette who STOLE two victories against Davidson and Butler and SCREWED my bracket twice. Davidson's awful pass and Andrew Smith's "Worst Shot That Ever Was and Ever Will Be in the History of Basketball" gave the Golden Eagles two wins. Now they face Miami, a team I picked to win the National Championship. The Hurricanes should have the talent to win this game, but since Buzz Williams' squad must be using the blog for bulletin board material, I'm not quite sure what to expect.

Finally, there's the Midwest region. Three of the most historic programs (Louisville, Duke, and Michigan State) and three of the greatest coaches (Rick Pitino, Mike Krzyzewski, and Tom Izzo) will be in the Indianapolis this weekend. Then there are the Oregon Ducks and Dana Altman, currently raging a vendetta against the selection committee for choosing them as a twelve seed and out to prove Oregon is more than a football school with cool jerseys. Let me take a quick moment to celebrate that my national championship pick, the Michigan State Spartans, are still playing basketball, unlike Missouri last year. Unfortunately, they must face one of the most talented teams in the country next, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous. Two very talented teams are going to duke it out in this game(no pun intended....). However, I have faith that the Spartans will prevail and make me look like a GENIUS when they win it all two weeks from today. Louisville vs. Oregon would've been a great game in college football. Unfortunately for the Ducks, I think there are only three teams left in the field that can beat Louisville, and they are not one of them. Russ Smith and Peyton Siva may be on Ricky Bobby invisible fire, and the Cards' full court press made a solid Colorado State team look like a bad high school freshman team. I still believe the winner of the entire tournament will come from this region, but what team it will ultimately be is going to be fun to watch unfold.

Unfortunately for me, my bracket is in complete shambles. But my ego was recovered when I reread my Six Senses article and have turned out to be right about many of my predictions, including Ole Miss, the Atlantic 10, LaSalle, and Indiana. Let's hope the other two come true, so my basketball predictions aren't diminished to the level of your average know-it-all with a blog.........................

J. Nave

Fun Fact of the Week: The Florida Gulf Coast coach, Andy Enfield, is married to a supermodel. Don't believe me? Read this for way more information than you possible could need to know about Amanda Marcum Enfield (Amanda Marcum---Yahoo)          

Why the Michigan State Spartans Will Cut Down the Nets

WARNING: FOR THE 2012 NCAA TOURNAMENT, I FILLED OUT TWO BRACKETS. IN ONE OF THOSE, I PICKED MISSOURI TO WIN IT ALL. IN THE OTHER, I HAD KENTUCKY OVER KANSAS IN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP AND THREE OF FOUR FINAL FOUR TEAMS CORRECT. THEREFORE, LISTENING TO MY PREDICTIONS BELOW WILL LEAD YOU TO EITHER A LOT OF MONEY OR A LOT OF EMBARRASSMENT. CHOOSE WISELY.....

For the entire 2012-2013 season, it has been no secret that the Big Ten has been the best conference in basketball. Teams have continually been ranked in the top 10 and top 25, and Big Ten games consistently proved to be some of the season's most entertaining. Unfortunately for the Big Ten, when it comes to the NCAA tournament, success has eluded the conference for thirteen years. This year, the national title drought will end. Who will stop it? Not Indiana, a team of destiny who has led the renaissance of Hoosier basketball because of their senior class. Not Ohio State, arguably the hottest team in the country. Not Michigan, who boasts one of the most electric backcourts in the country. Instead, Tom Izzo and the Spartans will cut down the nets in Atlanta. Many of you reading that last sentence probably think I'm insane. The Midwest region is loaded. Louisville, Duke, St. Louis, and Oklahoma State are all very talented teams, and Michigan State does not have the most elite talent this year. Give me five minutes though, and I'll show you why nobody should sleep on the Spartans.

Out of all the coaches I respect in the NCAA, Tom Izzo probably tops the list. Not only has Izzo experienced tremendous success in East Lansing, but he's also on the shorter side of basketball coaches and us short people have to stick together!!!! Izzo's successes are well documented. He won a national title in 2000, which was the last one for the Big Ten. He has been to five other final fours. Most impressively, he has a career winning percentage of .725 (37-14) in the NCAA tournament. Bottom line: Tom Izzo can flat out coach. He could take the Bad News Bears to the Final Four, and the Bears are a baseball team in a fictitious movie! Heck, Izzo could have taken the 2012-2013 Kentucky Wildcats to the Final Four (Actually, no he probably couldn't have. Let's not get too crazy here...).

Nobody should overlook the players for the Spartans, since they will ultimately decide how the games unfold (My English teachers would be disappointed with this weak topic sentence). Two very talented forwards in Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix are the leaders for the starting lineup. Payne can jump out and stroke the three (he has a .455 percentage from outside), and Nix can pound inside with any player the Spartans will face. Freshman guard Gary Harris, who was Mr. Basketball in the state of Indiana last year, has developed into a leader for the Spartans and won Freshman of the Year in a conference filled with very talented freshmen. I'll be the first one to admit, however, Keith Appling and Branden Dawson have not been very consistent, and their turnovers has hurt the Spartans all year. That being said, Izzo will calm these guys down and not let the tournament pressure go to their heads. Additionally, the Spartans have depth, which is also crucial in the tournament. Travis Trice, Matt Costello, and Denzel Valentine are just a few of role players who play key roles for Michigan State.

Most importantly in March, you can't overlook the intangibles, or as I like to call them, "the factors that are way too bizarre to be coincidences and betting people should consult them before filling out their brackets." Four years ago, the Spartans made the Final Four. Four years before that, the Spartans also made the Final Four. Can you guess what happened another four years before that? If you said "Make the Final Four", congratulations because you are correct. For some odd reason, four seems to be Tom Izzo's lucky number (sorry for the lame pun in that sentence). That factor alone would have been enough for me to pick the Spartans, but there's more. The last time the title game was held in Atlanta (2007), a Big Ten team made it. The previous Final Four in Atlanta (2002) also included a Big Ten participant in the National Championship. While both of these teams ultimately lost, hasn't it been said that the third time's the charm? If I haven't convinced you the Spartans are for real, congrats on being stubborn in your beliefs. But I've still got my ace in the hole; Ken Pomeroy. If you haven't checked out this guy's site, he proves that he's a lot smarter than the average fan right off the bat. He maintains rankings for every basketball team in Division I, based on a variety of complicated factors I cannot explain. One of the most important stats is adjusted defensive efficiency. Teams ranked in the top 20 of this category have won the last ten national championships. Some rankings for notable tournament teams in the Midwest:
Michigan State-8th                     Louisville-1st                         Duke-26th
Saint Louis-7th                          Oklahoma State-10th              Oregon-16th

As you can see, the Midwest is ripe with strong defensive teams. Whoever wins this region is going to have to score on some tremendous teams, while also maintaining their own defensive prowess. The man I trust the most to lead his team and accomplish this task is Tom Izzo. It's not going to be an easy task, but I believe Izzo's March Magic is going to lead the Spartans to Atlanta and bring back some hardware to East Lansing. In a couple of weeks, and after the Spartans cut down the nets, tell all your friends and family about this article and the greatest blog on the planet. If they lose to Valparaiso in their first game, forget about this article, but still tell your friends and family about the greatest blog on Earth.

The entire bracket is below. Forgot to make my UCLA-Minnesota pick before taking this picture (Probably because I don't trust either team), but I'm taking Minnesota. Even though they've been the definition of inconsistency  Mbawke is going to be the difference maker inside against injury riddled UCLA. 

J. Nave

   
Fun Fact of the Week: Ken Pomeroy used to be a meteorologist before he decided to run metrics on college basketball, and currently teaches at the University of Utah. Thank you to him for running one of the most helpful websites on the Internet for getting data about college basketball

Six Senses About March Madness

Selection Sunday has officially come and gone. 68 teams have a shot to cut down the nets in Atlanta, and in a historical twist, the defending national champions, the Kentucky Wildcats, will not be participating in the Big Dance (Good Luck in the NIT, Big Blue Nation). Last year, the Wildcats were the clear cut favorites to win it all. This year, it's anybody's ball game. Louisville  Ohio State, and Miami (FL) appear to be the hottest teams. Indiana, Duke, and Kansas are probably the three most talented. A host of teams could become Cinderellas. Meanwhile, Kentucky will enjoy watching some fantastic basketball on television (Last jab at you Kentucky fans out there. Sorry, but after the cockiness last year, you deserve a little payback). 

I've watched too much basketball, and as a result, I'm struggling with making my picks. Every team has a flaw and I don't trust many teams to win six (or seven if you're a play in team) games. I'll release my bracket by Thursday, but here are a few initial thoughts. Six thoughts actually, for the six wins you'll need to be crowned National Champions.

1. I sense people are underestimating the Atlantic 10: I'll admit, unless you have an advanced cable package, you probably didn't see many A-10 games. I did, and apparently just like the committee, I was impressed by the entire league. St. Louis and VCU received top 5 seeds, yet couldn't be more different. St. Louis likes to slow games down, play aggressive defense, and get baskets where they can. VCU has their trademark "Havoc" defense which puts teams in a lot of stress and leads to easy baskets. Both teams should win their first games, and I think they'll both make the Sweet 16. Butler, a fellow A-10 member, is being targeted as a team likely to get upset. To that I say two things: 

1) Name another player on Bucknell besides Mike Muscala

2) Why on Earth would you bet against the Butler Bulldogs in March?

Butler was predicted by many to lose to 12 seed UTEP three years ago. They ended up making the National Championship Game. Plus they have Rotnei Clarke, one of the most dynamic scorers in the country. Brad Stevens' bunch knows how to win in a single elimination tournaments, and they love being the underdogs (No lame pun intended).

2. I sense people are pegging Louisville as the new favorite: Don't get me wrong, I understand this logic. Louisville can defend better than almost any team in the country. Louisville has played a grueling schedule that should prepare them for March. However, Russ Smith plays for Louisville. Mr. Smith plays basketball like a dog when you ring the doorbell; he's out of control and there's nothing you can do about it. He made a lot of his shots in the Big East tournament and didn't end up hurting the Cardinals. I don't have faith in him doing so for six more games. Plus, with the experienced coaches in the region (see Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski) they may ring the doorbell nonstop and force Smith to beat them. If this happens, not even Russ Smith knows what's going to happen to him next.

3. I sense Indiana may be okay after all: Tom Crean has a problem. This problem is very easy to fix. I'm going to call it DYA Coach Syndrome. For some odd reason, Crean likes to play his reserves, like Derek Elston, Jeremy Hollowell, and Hanner Mosquera-Perea (WHO?!?!?! was probably your response to those 3 names), instead of keeping arguably the most talented starting five in the country on the floor. Perhaps this was because the ruggedness of the Big Ten. Perhaps he wanted to prepare them for this occasion. Maybe he wanted to make his team play more like Kentucky (Sorry couldn't resist. Promise that's the last one). Whatever the reason, Dwight Schrute's brother still has a very talented group that will finally be able to get their high octane offense going, since their out of the defensive minded Big Ten. The Hoosiers are hungry to hang another banner, and their fans will travel wherever they play. Will offense and willpower be enough? We'll have our answer soon enough.

4. I sense Marshall Henderson is going to be something special: I'm not a fan of cocky players usually. Marshall Henderson takes cocky to a whole new level, and for that, I actually give him a little expect. If you want an example of his antics, watch this: Marshall Henderson vs. Auburn (Please don't skip that video if you haven't seen it). Marshall Henderson probably thinks he could beat LeBron, Kobe, Micheal, Larry and Wilt in a game of one vs. five. His confidence will drive the Rebels, but he faces an interesting match up with Wisconsin. The boring Badgers will slow the game down, and focus a lot of their defense on Henderson. However, this seems to be when he thrives. I'll be rooting for Henderson and even if Ole Miss bows out early, I guarantee everyone's favorite lunatic will provide at least one good soundbite during the NCAA tournament (AP Government reference in that last sentence? I'll let you read my blog and study at the same time!). 

5. I sense a play-in game winner will yet again win another game: Yeah I know. This isn't that bold of a prediction. VCU in 2011 and South Florida in 2012 both were able to win games out of the "First Four" in years past. This year, the winner of St. Mary's/Middle Tennessee State will beat Memphis. The Tigers may have won 30 games, but they're the most overrated team in the entire field. It doesn't help that their coach looks like he's 23 years old (Josh Pastner), either. The Gaels or the Blue Raiders also get a slight nod over Memphis because they have two awesome nicknames.

6. I sense the Big Ten drought will finally end: For those of you who don't know, the Big Ten hasn't won a National Championship since 2000. The Michigan State Spartans won the title that year, and they're just one of a few teams from the B1G that have legitimate shots to cut down the net this year. Ohio State and Indiana have already been mentioned. Wisconsin's system can be effective in the tournament. If Michigan's guards show up, they have a chance to reach Atlanta. The bottom line is the Big Ten has had too good of a season to let it go to waste. Not winning it all would be a letdown for this conference, whether the basketball crazed fans in the Midwest admit it or not.

Be back within the next couple of days with a picture of my entire bracket and analysis of my full predictions!

J. Nave

Fun Fact of the Week: For those of you who care (which is probably all of you because you've stayed loyal to this blog for seven postings now), I went 4 of 8 in picking conference champions last week. 50% is pretty good in my opinion for tournaments where you never really know who is and who isn't going to show up. Let's hope it continues when the real money is on the line this week! 

MARCH MADNESS PART ONE

While the NCAA tournament is my second favorite time of year, the NCAA basketball conference tournament week (from this past Monday to upcoming Sunday) manages to put up a strong fight for third. Especially in a year like this, where leagues like the Big East, Big Ten, and Mountain West have been very difficult to figure out, conference tournament week is sure to provide some excitement. Some people argue that the conference tournaments are glorified scrimmages. I'm in the camp that they are crucial for teams to build momentum, hang on to a good seed in the tournament, and just get in the Big Dance. Here are my predictions for the "Big Six" conferences and a couple crucial mid-major leagues that could provide a Final Four team next week.

ACC

My Pick: It's hard to pick against Duke. They're undefeated with Ryan Kelly in the lineup. Coach K is arguably the best coach to have on your bench this time of year. Add this to the fact that they are trying to garner a one seed, and maybe the one seed overall, Duke simply has too much to play for. It's going to be a tough road. They could potential draw Maryland, a team who beat them earlier, then North Carolina, a team out for revenge after a beat down last Saturday, and then Miami, a team that shocked the world and won the ACC. Ultimately, Duke will be up to the task and the Blue Devils will cut down the nets in Greensboro.

Dark Horse: Watch out for NC State. Highly touted as a challenger for Duke and North Carolina at the start of the season, NC State collapsed under too much talent. The Wolfpack has the talent to win four games in four days. The question is, will they beat themselves?

Big East

My Pick: Louisville will cut down the nets in Madison Square Garden in the final edition of one of the finest college basketball tournaments on the planet. As long as Louisville keeps the ball out of Russ Smith's hands in the final seconds, the Cardinals can beat any team in the country. They're currently the number one team in the Basketball Power Index and their defense has been getting better and better. Defense and guard play are crucial this time of year, and I think Peyton Siva will step up.

Dark Horse: Cincinnati went on an impressive run in last year's tournament and they looked impressive against Providence, a team who's been trending up of late. Mick Cronin squad's been inconsistent (which is a gross understatement in all honesty) but it wouldn't surprise me if they knock off top seeded Georgetown.

Big Ten

My Pick: Ohio State. If you told me a few weeks ago the Ohio State Buckeyes were a legitimate Final Foru team, I would've laughed at your basketball stupidity. There's no way a team that gets so much offense from one player, Deshaun Thomas, can be successful late in the season. However, America's Favorite Player to Hate, Aaron Craft started playing offense like he's never done before. When Craft plays like he is, and when players like Sam Thompson are molding into solid scorers, Ohio State can shock the world like they did last Tuesday at Indiana.

Dark Horse: Iowa. The Hawkeyes are a young and dangerous team. They've been a tough game for all the strong teams in the Big Ten, and they need some crucial wins if they want in the tournament. If Aaron White can play well, this team could be dangerous.

Big Twelve

My Pick: Kansas has owned the Big XII for years, and it's not going to change this year. I'm getting lazy so I'm not going to elaborate on this fact much more. When you have the most talent and people are scared to face you, you will win A LOT (see mid 2000s Tiger Woods). They did get blown out by Baylor, but that's going to end up being a blessing in disguise

Dark Horse: Baylor. The Baylor Bears are like a box of chocolates that's been thrown away, taken out of the trash can, and left around to sit for a couple months... You never know what you're going to find taken to a whole new level. Like NC State, they have the talent. Like NC State, they like to beat themselves, too.

Pac 12

My Pick: Arizona. Nobody east of Boulder, Colorado watches Pac 12 basketball because it's terrible to be brutally honest. The Wildcats are the best of a bunch of overrated teams, so I'm taking them.

Dark Horse: Oregon State. The Beavers are the 12 seed and I've never seen them play. To show how bad the Pac 12 is, I'm picking them.

SEC

My Pick: I truly had no idea who to pick. Florida, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Missouri are like the Kardashian sisters. Sure they're pretty to look at initially, but past that there's not a whole lot of substance. Alabama is a football school and nobody even knew they had a basketball team until last month. I'm going with Tennessee simply because they're the hottest team of the bunch. Florida's still a very talented team, but they act like they don't care half the time they play away from Gainesville, which is a scary task.

Dark Horse: After the six teams above, the SEC basketball teams fall off a cliff in terms of talent. Then they proceed to fall off another cliff. I'll take South Carolina because there's a great chance I'll be enrolling there next year and it gives me an opportunity to type "GO COCKS!" 

Mountain West

My Pick: The Pac 12's little sister for many years has suddenly developed into a supermodel and has kicked the ugly, unsuccessful older sister to the curb. Watching MWC basketball was beyond exciting for a basketball aficionado like myself. Struggled with this pick, but I'm taking New Mexico. The Lobos ultimately won the Mountain West and they're brutal nonconference schedule has seasoned them for March. Any of the top five teams could win the tournament, and it's going to provide some exciting basketball.

Dark Horse: Boise State doesn't play on a blue basketball court, but they've come out of nowhere these last few months for their improved play. The Broncos will be a tough out in Las Vegas.

Atlantic 10

-My Pick: America's Favorite Final Four Darlings will leave the A-10 after this year to join the new (and improved?) Big East, but they've been outperformed by fellow newcomer VCU and feel good story Saint Louis. Rotnei Clarke is one of the best players in the conference, and once March rolls around, no one wants to see Brad Stevens' team on the docket. As a five seed, they're going to have to win four games and beat the two powers named above, but I trust the Hinkle Fieldhouse Magic and I'm to scared to pick against it.

-Dark Horse: Xavier went to the Sweet Sixteen last year. It's been a down year for this Cincinnati basketball team, but they have one of the most underrated freshman in Semaj Christon, and a lethal shooter in Brad Reford. Winning the tournament is Xavier's only path to the dance, but in the crazy A-10,  I wouldn't rule the Musketeers out.

J. Nave

Fun Fact of the Week: Supposedly a teacher at my school discovered my blog and read some of it. If you're reading  this article, I wanted to let you know I don't edit these posts at all; I sit down and type. If you would like to edit for me pro bono to give the blog some extra flair, feel free to contact me and I'll arrange something!