I've watched too much basketball, and as a result, I'm struggling with making my picks. Every team has a flaw and I don't trust many teams to win six (or seven if you're a play in team) games. I'll release my bracket by Thursday, but here are a few initial thoughts. Six thoughts actually, for the six wins you'll need to be crowned National Champions.
1. I sense people are underestimating the Atlantic 10: I'll admit, unless you have an advanced cable package, you probably didn't see many A-10 games. I did, and apparently just like the committee, I was impressed by the entire league. St. Louis and VCU received top 5 seeds, yet couldn't be more different. St. Louis likes to slow games down, play aggressive defense, and get baskets where they can. VCU has their trademark "Havoc" defense which puts teams in a lot of stress and leads to easy baskets. Both teams should win their first games, and I think they'll both make the Sweet 16. Butler, a fellow A-10 member, is being targeted as a team likely to get upset. To that I say two things:
1) Name another player on Bucknell besides Mike Muscala
2) Why on Earth would you bet against the Butler Bulldogs in March?
Butler was predicted by many to lose to 12 seed UTEP three years ago. They ended up making the National Championship Game. Plus they have Rotnei Clarke, one of the most dynamic scorers in the country. Brad Stevens' bunch knows how to win in a single elimination tournaments, and they love being the underdogs (No lame pun intended).
2. I sense people are pegging Louisville as the new favorite: Don't get me wrong, I understand this logic. Louisville can defend better than almost any team in the country. Louisville has played a grueling schedule that should prepare them for March. However, Russ Smith plays for Louisville. Mr. Smith plays basketball like a dog when you ring the doorbell; he's out of control and there's nothing you can do about it. He made a lot of his shots in the Big East tournament and didn't end up hurting the Cardinals. I don't have faith in him doing so for six more games. Plus, with the experienced coaches in the region (see Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski) they may ring the doorbell nonstop and force Smith to beat them. If this happens, not even Russ Smith knows what's going to happen to him next.
3. I sense Indiana may be okay after all: Tom Crean has a problem. This problem is very easy to fix. I'm going to call it DYA Coach Syndrome. For some odd reason, Crean likes to play his reserves, like Derek Elston, Jeremy Hollowell, and Hanner Mosquera-Perea (WHO?!?!?! was probably your response to those 3 names), instead of keeping arguably the most talented starting five in the country on the floor. Perhaps this was because the ruggedness of the Big Ten. Perhaps he wanted to prepare them for this occasion. Maybe he wanted to make his team play more like Kentucky (Sorry couldn't resist. Promise that's the last one). Whatever the reason, Dwight Schrute's brother still has a very talented group that will finally be able to get their high octane offense going, since their out of the defensive minded Big Ten. The Hoosiers are hungry to hang another banner, and their fans will travel wherever they play. Will offense and willpower be enough? We'll have our answer soon enough.
4. I sense Marshall Henderson is going to be something special: I'm not a fan of cocky players usually. Marshall Henderson takes cocky to a whole new level, and for that, I actually give him a little expect. If you want an example of his antics, watch this: Marshall Henderson vs. Auburn (Please don't skip that video if you haven't seen it). Marshall Henderson probably thinks he could beat LeBron, Kobe, Micheal, Larry and Wilt in a game of one vs. five. His confidence will drive the Rebels, but he faces an interesting match up with Wisconsin. The boring Badgers will slow the game down, and focus a lot of their defense on Henderson. However, this seems to be when he thrives. I'll be rooting for Henderson and even if Ole Miss bows out early, I guarantee everyone's favorite lunatic will provide at least one good soundbite during the NCAA tournament (AP Government reference in that last sentence? I'll let you read my blog and study at the same time!).
5. I sense a play-in game winner will yet again win another game: Yeah I know. This isn't that bold of a prediction. VCU in 2011 and South Florida in 2012 both were able to win games out of the "First Four" in years past. This year, the winner of St. Mary's/Middle Tennessee State will beat Memphis. The Tigers may have won 30 games, but they're the most overrated team in the entire field. It doesn't help that their coach looks like he's 23 years old (Josh Pastner), either. The Gaels or the Blue Raiders also get a slight nod over Memphis because they have two awesome nicknames.
6. I sense the Big Ten drought will finally end: For those of you who don't know, the Big Ten hasn't won a National Championship since 2000. The Michigan State Spartans won the title that year, and they're just one of a few teams from the B1G that have legitimate shots to cut down the net this year. Ohio State and Indiana have already been mentioned. Wisconsin's system can be effective in the tournament. If Michigan's guards show up, they have a chance to reach Atlanta. The bottom line is the Big Ten has had too good of a season to let it go to waste. Not winning it all would be a letdown for this conference, whether the basketball crazed fans in the Midwest admit it or not.
Be back within the next couple of days with a picture of my entire bracket and analysis of my full predictions!
J. Nave
Fun Fact of the Week: For those of you who care (which is probably all of you because you've stayed loyal to this blog for seven postings now), I went 4 of 8 in picking conference champions last week. 50% is pretty good in my opinion for tournaments where you never really know who is and who isn't going to show up. Let's hope it continues when the real money is on the line this week!
6. I sense the Big Ten drought will finally end: For those of you who don't know, the Big Ten hasn't won a National Championship since 2000. The Michigan State Spartans won the title that year, and they're just one of a few teams from the B1G that have legitimate shots to cut down the net this year. Ohio State and Indiana have already been mentioned. Wisconsin's system can be effective in the tournament. If Michigan's guards show up, they have a chance to reach Atlanta. The bottom line is the Big Ten has had too good of a season to let it go to waste. Not winning it all would be a letdown for this conference, whether the basketball crazed fans in the Midwest admit it or not.
Be back within the next couple of days with a picture of my entire bracket and analysis of my full predictions!
J. Nave
Fun Fact of the Week: For those of you who care (which is probably all of you because you've stayed loyal to this blog for seven postings now), I went 4 of 8 in picking conference champions last week. 50% is pretty good in my opinion for tournaments where you never really know who is and who isn't going to show up. Let's hope it continues when the real money is on the line this week!
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