For the entire 2012-2013 season, it has been no secret that the Big Ten has been the best conference in basketball. Teams have continually been ranked in the top 10 and top 25, and Big Ten games consistently proved to be some of the season's most entertaining. Unfortunately for the Big Ten, when it comes to the NCAA tournament, success has eluded the conference for thirteen years. This year, the national title drought will end. Who will stop it? Not Indiana, a team of destiny who has led the renaissance of Hoosier basketball because of their senior class. Not Ohio State, arguably the hottest team in the country. Not Michigan, who boasts one of the most electric backcourts in the country. Instead, Tom Izzo and the Spartans will cut down the nets in Atlanta. Many of you reading that last sentence probably think I'm insane. The Midwest region is loaded. Louisville, Duke, St. Louis, and Oklahoma State are all very talented teams, and Michigan State does not have the most elite talent this year. Give me five minutes though, and I'll show you why nobody should sleep on the Spartans.
Out of all the coaches I respect in the NCAA, Tom Izzo probably tops the list. Not only has Izzo experienced tremendous success in East Lansing, but he's also on the shorter side of basketball coaches and us short people have to stick together!!!! Izzo's successes are well documented. He won a national title in 2000, which was the last one for the Big Ten. He has been to five other final fours. Most impressively, he has a career winning percentage of .725 (37-14) in the NCAA tournament. Bottom line: Tom Izzo can flat out coach. He could take the Bad News Bears to the Final Four, and the Bears are a baseball team in a fictitious movie! Heck, Izzo could have taken the 2012-2013 Kentucky Wildcats to the Final Four (Actually, no he probably couldn't have. Let's not get too crazy here...).
Nobody should overlook the players for the Spartans, since they will ultimately decide how the games unfold (My English teachers would be disappointed with this weak topic sentence). Two very talented forwards in Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix are the leaders for the starting lineup. Payne can jump out and stroke the three (he has a .455 percentage from outside), and Nix can pound inside with any player the Spartans will face. Freshman guard Gary Harris, who was Mr. Basketball in the state of Indiana last year, has developed into a leader for the Spartans and won Freshman of the Year in a conference filled with very talented freshmen. I'll be the first one to admit, however, Keith Appling and Branden Dawson have not been very consistent, and their turnovers has hurt the Spartans all year. That being said, Izzo will calm these guys down and not let the tournament pressure go to their heads. Additionally, the Spartans have depth, which is also crucial in the tournament. Travis Trice, Matt Costello, and Denzel Valentine are just a few of role players who play key roles for Michigan State.
Most importantly in March, you can't overlook the intangibles, or as I like to call them, "the factors that are way too bizarre to be coincidences and betting people should consult them before filling out their brackets." Four years ago, the Spartans made the Final Four. Four years before that, the Spartans also made the Final Four. Can you guess what happened another four years before that? If you said "Make the Final Four", congratulations because you are correct. For some odd reason, four seems to be Tom Izzo's lucky number (sorry for the lame pun in that sentence). That factor alone would have been enough for me to pick the Spartans, but there's more. The last time the title game was held in Atlanta (2007), a Big Ten team made it. The previous Final Four in Atlanta (2002) also included a Big Ten participant in the National Championship. While both of these teams ultimately lost, hasn't it been said that the third time's the charm? If I haven't convinced you the Spartans are for real, congrats on being stubborn in your beliefs. But I've still got my ace in the hole; Ken Pomeroy. If you haven't checked out this guy's site, he proves that he's a lot smarter than the average fan right off the bat. He maintains rankings for every basketball team in Division I, based on a variety of complicated factors I cannot explain. One of the most important stats is adjusted defensive efficiency. Teams ranked in the top 20 of this category have won the last ten national championships. Some rankings for notable tournament teams in the Midwest:
Michigan State-8th Louisville-1st Duke-26th
Saint Louis-7th Oklahoma State-10th Oregon-16th
As you can see, the Midwest is ripe with strong defensive teams. Whoever wins this region is going to have to score on some tremendous teams, while also maintaining their own defensive prowess. The man I trust the most to lead his team and accomplish this task is Tom Izzo. It's not going to be an easy task, but I believe Izzo's March Magic is going to lead the Spartans to Atlanta and bring back some hardware to East Lansing. In a couple of weeks, and after the Spartans cut down the nets, tell all your friends and family about this article and the greatest blog on the planet. If they lose to Valparaiso in their first game, forget about this article, but still tell your friends and family about the greatest blog on Earth.
The entire bracket is below. Forgot to make my UCLA-Minnesota pick before taking this picture (Probably because I don't trust either team), but I'm taking Minnesota. Even though they've been the definition of inconsistency Mbawke is going to be the difference maker inside against injury riddled UCLA.
J. Nave
Fun Fact of the Week: Ken Pomeroy used to be a meteorologist before he decided to run metrics on college basketball, and currently teaches at the University of Utah. Thank you to him for running one of the most helpful websites on the Internet for getting data about college basketball
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